Rail-port intermodal competitiveness and the reliability premium in Vietnam’s multimodal freight system: Evidence from stated preferences
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freight mode choice, discrete choice experiment, sustainable freight transport, willingness-to-pay, rail–port intermodal transport, multimodal logistics, Vietnam
Abstract
Purpose. This study aims to quantify the behavioral determinants of freight transport mode choice in Vietnam’s multimodal logistics system, with particular focus on estimating the economic value of service reliability, the so-called “reliability premium” for rail-port intermodal transport relative to road and maritime alternatives. By generating empirical evidence on willingness-to-pay (WTP) for key transport attributes, the study contributes to the policy foundations required for sustainable freight infrastructure investment in an emerging economy. Methodology. A stated preference (SP) survey was administered to 60 logistics professionals and domain experts (yielding 600 observations across ten choice scenarios per respondent). A Multinomial Logit (MNL) model grounded in Random Utility Theory was estimated to assess the marginal utilities of four transport attributes: transportation cost, transit time, service reliability, and service frequency. WTP values were derived using the ratio of attribute coefficients to the cost coefficient, with appropriate scaling to reflect monetary units (USD/TEU). The Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives assumption was verified using the Hausman-McFadden test. Results. All four attributes are statistically significant with theoretically expected signs. Transportation cost is the strongest determinant of mode choice (β = −1.32), followed by service reliability (β = 1.18), transit time (β = −0.78), and service frequency (β = 0.59). WTP estimates indicate that respondents value a one-percentage-point improvement in on-time delivery at approximately USD 89 per TEU, and a one-day reduction in transit time at USD 59 per TEU. Rail-port intermodal transport, while currently the least preferred mode, demonstrates latent competitiveness under improved cost and reliability conditions. Theoretical Contribution. This study provides one of the first behaviorally grounded, WTP-based assessments of rail-port intermodal competitiveness in Vietnam, extending the discrete choice modeling literature to an emerging economy context where revealed preference data remain largely unavailable. The findings empirically validate the presence of a “reliability premium” in freight decision-making, consistent with recent international evidence on the growing salience of supply chain resilience. Practical Implications. The quantified WTP estimates provide actionable benchmarks for transport infrastructure investment appraisal and modal shift policy design. Specifically, the findings support the economic case for investments in rail-port connectivity, real-time reliability-enhancing technologies, and public-private partnership frameworks in Vietnam’s freight sector. These results directly inform the implementation of SDG 9 (Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure) and SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities) in an emerging economy setting.
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